DuelDuck Research Team
Research Team
23
ArticlesAll articles
The 2026 US Midterm Elections: How Prediction Markets Are Already Pricing the SenatePolymarket prices Democrats at 52% to win Senate control. Kalshi maps 10 competitive Senate battlegrounds. Republicans defend 23 of 35 seats. Senate Leadership Fund is deploying $342M across 8 states. Democrats need +4 seats from 53-47 deficit. Trump's approval in the mid-30s, a DHS shutdown since February, and a Virginia redistricting win have shifted market odds toward Democrats. Election Day is November 3, 2026. Here is everything the markets are pricing seven months out.
Is Prediction Market Gambling? The Legal Answer That Changes Everything in 2026The CFTC has sued 5 states in April 2026 - Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin - to stop them from treating Kalshi as illegal gambling. Wisconsin AG calls it 'bookmaking.' CFTC calls it 'federal derivatives.' The Supreme Court will likely decide. Here is the legal answer to whether prediction markets are gambling, which states restrict access, and what it means for DuelDuck participants.
Hyperliquid HIP-4: The $38 Billion Exchange That Wants to Challenge Polymarket in 2026Hyperliquid published its HIP-4 fee structure on April 29, 2026. Zero fees to open. Kalshi co-authored the proposal. 3.3% of Polymarket users already on Hyperliquid generate 12% of its volume. $219B in March volume. Arthur Hayes: 'HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market.' Here is everything prediction market participants need to know about the biggest new entrant in the space.
How Prediction Markets Are Improving Weather Forecasting (Bloomberg Says So)Bloomberg published three separate pieces in April 2026 on weather prediction markets. The January NYC megastorm generated $6M in volume on Kalshi alone. AI weather startups are now trading their own models on Polymarket. And France opened a criminal investigation after weather sensors at Charles de Gaulle Airport were allegedly tampered with ahead of Polymarket bets. This is the complete story of how weather prediction markets work, who is winning, and where the manipulation risk is.
Can Congress Members Be Banned from Stock Trading? What the Prediction Markets Say86% of Americans support banning Congress from trading stocks. 126 House cosponsors. A bipartisan Senate bill. A committee vote passed in January 2026. And yet - prediction markets price this at 12-20% probability of passage. The gap between public demand and legislative reality is the entire story. Here is what every market on the issue is pricing and why the odds are where they are.
France 2027 Presidential Election: How to Trade Europe's Most Unpredictable VoteMarine Le Pen is barred from running. Macron cannot run again. Edouard Philippe leads at 21.5% on Polymarket. Jordan Bardella is at 20.5% and rising. A Le Pen appeal ruling could change everything before April 2027. This is the most structurally uncertain presidential election in France's Fifth Republic history. Here is how to read every market and where the real trading edges are.
Kalshi vs DuelDuck: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2026?Kalshi is CFTC-regulated with 656,000+ markets and USD settlement. DuelDuck is a no-KYC Solana-based P2P prediction market with creator fee income up to 10% and instant USDC payouts. This guide breaks down fees, access, markets, and who each platform actually serves in 2026.
2026 Recession Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Betting OnKalshi's recession market hit 34% in March 2026 when oil crossed $100 a barrel. Polymarket prices 25.5% as of late April. Goldman Sachs puts 12-month recession probability at 20%. RSM at 30%. Wall Street banks briefly hit 50% in April. This guide breaks down every recession market on Kalshi and Polymarket, what the price means, what is driving the signal, and how to trade it.
Insider Trading in Prediction Markets ExplainedThis article explores the legal gray zone of insider trading in prediction markets after suspicious Polymarket bets on a US strike on Iran generated over $1.2 million in profits. It explains whether trading on non-public information in event contracts is actually illegal, how regulators like the CFTC approach enforcement, what recent cases reveal, and why Congress is now pushing new legislation that could reshape platforms like DuelDuck.