FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Prediction Markets 2026

Quick Answer: What Is FanDuel Predicts and Why Does It Matter?

FanDuel Predicts launched December 22, 2025 as a joint venture between FanDuel Group (Flutter Entertainment) and CME Group, the world's largest derivatives marketplace. DuelDuck and every other prediction market platform now faces a competitor with 17 million existing customers, 4.8 million monthly sportsbook users, and a national brand already trusted for real-money wagering. FanDuel Predicts is live in 16 states as of April 2026, regulated by the CFTC through CME Group's exchange infrastructure. It offers financial, sports, and cultural event contracts - but explicitly will not offer war, death, or regime change markets. The entry of sportsbook giants into prediction markets is the most significant competitive development of 2026 for Kalshi, Polymarket, and community-based platforms like DuelDuck.

Why FanDuel and DraftKings Entered Prediction Markets in 2025

FanDuel is America's largest online sportsbook by market share (approximately 35% of the US online sports betting market). DraftKings is the second-largest. Together they dominate a $17.5 billion industry. They entered prediction markets for one reason: Kalshi and Polymarket were taking their customers.

Billions of dollars are now exchanged weekly on Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports bettors who are comfortable wagering on real-money outcomes discovered prediction markets as an alternative that is available where sports betting is not legal, regulated at the federal level rather than state-by-state, and covers events beyond sports. FanDuel and DraftKings watched their potential addressable market expand into prediction markets without them.

FanDuel President Genetski described the calculation plainly in the April 2026 CNN interview: FanDuel Predicts 'enables us to harness a significant and incremental expansion of the US addressable market ahead of further state regulation - a space where our scale and experience give us a competitive advantage.'

The timing was precise. FanDuel and DraftKings both moved in December 2025 - immediately after Kalshi and Polymarket had their most visible year in mainstream media (the 2024 presidential election, $25B+ monthly volumes, CNN and CBS coverage). The sportsbook industry recognized prediction markets were becoming mainstream and entered before the window closed.

How FanDuel Predicts Works: The Product in Detail

Structure and Regulation

FanDuel Predicts is a joint venture between FanDuel Group and CME Group. Contracts are listed on CME Group's CFTC-regulated derivatives exchanges. FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC operates as a registered futures commission merchant (FCM) and NFA member. This regulatory structure is the same framework as Kalshi - both are CFTC-regulated, both operate under federal rather than state oversight.

KYC Requirements

FanDuel Predicts requires full identity verification at signup: birth date, Social Security number, home address, banking information, and government-issued ID. This is significantly more restrictive than Polymarket (no KYC) and DuelDuck (no KYC). The full KYC requirement reflects CME Group's regulatory compliance posture and FanDuel's existing identity verification infrastructure from its sportsbook product.

What You Can Trade

Geographic Availability

FanDuel Predicts launched December 22, 2025 in 5 states: Alabama, Alaska, North Dakota, South Carolina, and South Dakota. By April 2026, FanDuel Predicts is live in 16 states with national expansion ongoing. FanDuel's stated plan: expand to all states while maintaining the firewall between prediction markets and sportsbook states.

FanDuel Predicts vs Kalshi vs Polymarket vs DuelDuck

DuelDuck participants and creators now have four primary options for event contract trading. Each platform has distinct structural characteristics, target audiences, and market categories. Understanding the differences determines which platform serves which use case.

What FanDuel's Entry Means for Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi: More Competition for Sports Markets

Kalshi built its 2026 volume leadership (87% of March volume was sports) on exactly the market that FanDuel Predicts is targeting. FanDuel brings 17 million existing customers, established mobile infrastructure, and brand recognition that Kalshi spent years building. In states where FanDuel Predicts offers sports contracts, it competes directly with Kalshi for the sports-focused participant.

The Kalshi advantage: regulatory head start (active since 2021 vs FanDuel December 2025), deeper sports contract variety, and established liquidity in markets where FanDuel Predicts is still building participant pools. The FanDuel advantage: distribution (17M customers vs Kalshi's undisclosed but smaller base) and brand trust from existing sportsbook relationships.

Polymarket: Less Direct Competition

FanDuel Predicts explicitly excludes Polymarket's highest-volume category: war, regime change, and geopolitical conflict markets. Genetski's April 2026 CNN statement was unambiguous: 'We would never offer anything to do with death, regime change, war. That's not a FanDuel business.' Polymarket's Iran market ($84M), Khamenei market ($125M), and similar geopolitical contracts are structurally outside FanDuel's product scope.

For participants who trade geopolitical events, Polymarket remains the only major US-accessible option with full coverage. FanDuel Predicts' financial and cultural market coverage does create some competition with Polymarket's S&P 500, GDP, and cultural markets - but the volume in those categories is smaller than Polymarket's political core.

DraftKings: Parallel Entry

DraftKings announced its own prediction market product the same week FanDuel launched FanDuel Predicts in December 2025. DraftKings is the second-largest US online sportsbook (approximately 25-28% market share). Its prediction market entry mirrors FanDuel's strategic logic: access the states where sports betting is not legal, offer financial and cultural markets nationally, and protect the sportsbook revenue in legalized states.

DraftKings and FanDuel entering simultaneously creates a two-front expansion of prediction markets to the mainstream US sportsbook audience. Combined, they account for approximately 60-63% of the US online sports betting market - a distribution channel larger than Kalshi and Polymarket's combined user base.

What FanDuel's Entry Does Not Change for DuelDuck Creators

FanDuel Predicts, Kalshi, and Polymarket all share a structural limitation: they list markets created by the platform for general audiences. A Taylor Swift Grammy market on Kalshi reaches all Kalshi participants. A 'Will Chelsea FC win the Premier League?' contract on Polymarket reaches all Polymarket participants. Neither platform can create a market for a specific fan community, a local sports club, a Discord server, or a Telegram group with shared context.

DuelDuck's P2P creator model is structurally distinct from what any of these platforms offers. A DuelDuck creator designs a duel for their specific community, distributes it to participants who share the context that makes the question meaningful, and earns creator fee income regardless of outcome. That use case does not exist on FanDuel Predicts, Kalshi, or Polymarket.

The DuelDuck structural advantage sharpens as the major platforms expand: the more participants Kalshi, Polymarket, and FanDuel Predicts attract to prediction markets generally, the larger the pool of community members who are already familiar with prediction market mechanics and ready to participate in DuelDuck community duels. FanDuel's 17 million customers are a market education vehicle for the entire prediction market industry.

The Broader Competitive Landscape: Five Platforms, Five Strategies

Conclusion: More Competition Means More Market Education

FanDuel Predicts entered prediction markets because Kalshi and Polymarket were taking their customers. DraftKings followed the same week. Together, they bring the largest distribution networks in US wagering history to the prediction market category.

For participants who primarily trade financial benchmarks, sports outcomes, or cultural events, FanDuel Predicts offers a credible alternative with familiar branding, CFTC regulation, and existing account infrastructure. For participants who trade geopolitical events, war markets, or crypto-native contracts, Polymarket remains the better option. For participants who want to design markets for their specific communities and earn income from doing so, neither FanDuel Predicts nor any major platform serves that use case.

FanDuel President Genetski positioned FanDuel Predicts as an incremental market expansion, not a replacement for the core sportsbook. That framing is accurate and applies more broadly: FanDuel Predicts, Kalshi, and Polymarket are expanding the prediction market participant base. Every participant those platforms onboard is a potential DuelDuck community member - already familiar with binary YES/NO contracts, already comfortable with real-money event trading, already looking for the next thing to predict.

The sportsbook giants entering prediction markets is not a threat to DuelDuck. It is market education at scale.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Verify the legal status of prediction market trading in your jurisdiction before participating.