Polymarket vs Kalshi vs FanDuel vs DuelDuck (2026)

Quick Answer: DuelDuck vs FanDuel Predicts vs Kalshi at a Glance

Three prediction market platforms, three fundamentally different models. Kalshi is the US regulatory gold standard: CFTC-licensed since 2021, 130+ market categories, $11B valuation, variable fee structure. It requires full KYC (SSN + government ID) and is blocked in 8 states for some contract types. FanDuel Predicts is the sportsbook brand extension: 17 million existing FanDuel customers, 2% flat fee, sports contracts in 18 states without legal betting, backed by $200-300M Flutter investment in 2026. DuelDuck is the only prediction market with a creator economy: no KYC, 50/50 pool opening, up to 5% net creator fee per pool, USDC settlement on Solana in 400 milliseconds. The right platform depends entirely on what you want from prediction markets - and most serious participants use all three for different purposes.

The Master Comparison Table

Kalshi: The Regulatory Standard-Bearer

What Kalshi Does Best

Kalshi became the first CFTC-licensed designated contract market for event contracts in 2021, and that head start has compounded into a dominant market position. 87% of Kalshi's March 2026 trading volume came from sports contracts, generating $9.9 billion of its $11.39 billion total. The platform also dominates US political and economic markets - the 2026 midterm Senate control market, Fed rate cut contracts, CPI threshold contracts, and Oscar prediction markets all see their deepest US liquidity on Kalshi.

Specific Kalshi advantages:

• Deepest US liquidity: Major event contracts on Kalshi routinely attract millions in daily volume, translating to tight bid-ask spreads and reliable order fills at posted prices.

• Interest on cash: Kalshi pays 3.75-4% APY on uninvested cash balances - a meaningful return for participants who maintain large positions or wait for the right entry. FanDuel Predicts and DuelDuck do not offer this.

• 130+ market categories: From named Atlantic storms to Supreme Court rulings to movie box office totals, Kalshi's category breadth is unmatched among US-regulated platforms.

• 0DTE contracts: Zero Days to Expiration contracts on Kalshi allow daily resolution, creating high-frequency trading opportunities that longer-duration contracts cannot replicate.

• Institutional infrastructure: Kalshi has a VIP program for high-volume accounts, institutional API access, and brokerage integrations (Robinhood prediction hub launched March 2026 via Kalshi).

Kalshi's Limitations

• Full KYC barrier: SSN, government ID, and address verification are required. This excludes international participants and creates friction for privacy-conscious US users.

• State restrictions: As of May 2026, Kalshi is not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, or OH for sports contracts, following CFTC vs state litigation. Financial and cultural contracts may be available in some of these states; check Kalshi's website for current status.

• No creator economy: Kalshi designs and lists all markets. Participants trade but cannot earn income from creating markets. The platform captures all market design value.

• Fiat settlement lag: ACH withdrawals take 1-3 business days. Winning contract payouts are credited to a Kalshi cash balance, not a personal bank account, until withdrawal is initiated.

FanDuel Predicts: The Sportsbook Brand Extension

What FanDuel Predicts Does Best

FanDuel Predicts launched December 22, 2025 as a joint venture with CME Group. Flutter Entertainment has committed $200-300 million to the prediction market product in 2026, signaling long-term seriousness. For its target audience - the 17 million existing FanDuel sportsbook participants - the platform is an on-ramp to prediction markets without switching to an unfamiliar brand.

Specific FanDuel Predicts advantages:

• 17 million existing customers: FanDuel holds approximately 35% of the US online sports betting market. Its prediction market product reaches participants already comfortable with real-money wagering on event outcomes through a trusted brand.

• Simple fee structure: A flat 2% fee on potential payout is easier to calculate than Kalshi's variable fee formula. For casual participants making smaller trades on lower-probability contracts, the math is transparent.

• 18-state sports access: FanDuel Predicts offers sports contracts in 18 states where FanDuel's core sportsbook is not available (CA, TX, FL, GA and others). This serves the large population in major non-betting states who want sports prediction markets.

• Sportsbook-style UX: FanDuel Predicts presents contracts in multiplier format (1.67x rather than 60 cents) by default, matching the display style familiar to sportsbook users. The interface is mobile-first and mirrors FanDuel's existing app design language.

• Early cash-out: Select FanDuel Predicts markets allow early sell/cash-out, letting participants lock in gains before resolution if the market has moved in their favor.

FanDuel Predicts' Limitations

• 2% fee on potential payout: For high-probability contracts, 2% of payout is more expensive than Kalshi's variable fee. A 90-cent contract on Kalshi might carry an effective fee of 0.5-1%; the same contract on FanDuel costs 2% of the full payout regardless.

• Limited market depth: FanDuel Predicts is newer and has lower liquidity than Kalshi on most markets. Spreads are wider, and some contracts lack the volume needed for smooth execution at posted prices.

• No war/conflict/regime change markets: FanDuel President Christian Genetski explicitly stated: 'We would never offer anything to do with death, regime change, war.' This policy excludes Polymarket's highest-volume category from FanDuel's product entirely.

• Sports only in non-betting states: In the 36+ states where FanDuel's sportsbook operates, FanDuel Predicts offers only financial, economic, and cultural markets - not sports. Participants in sportsbook states cannot use FanDuel Predicts for sports prediction contracts.

• Full KYC + bank verification: Requires SSN, government ID, home address, and banking information - more restrictive than Kalshi, which does not require banking info at signup.

DuelDuck: The Creator Economy Platform

What DuelDuck Does Best

DuelDuck is the only prediction market where participants earn income from creating markets rather than only trading them. The create-duel interface at duelduck.com/create-duel allows any participant to design a binary YES/NO duel with their own question, set their own commission (up to 10% gross), choose their currency (SOL, USDC, SPL tokens, or Duck Points), and distribute to their community.

Specific DuelDuck advantages:

• Creator income model: The only platform where market designers earn up to 5% net creator fee per pool regardless of prediction outcome. Income is decoupled from prediction accuracy - creators earn from market design and community distribution, not from being right.

• 50/50 structural entry: Every DuelDuck pool opens at 50/50 regardless of Kalshi or Polymarket consensus pricing. When Kalshi prices Arsenal at 27.5% to win the UCL Final, a DuelDuck Arsenal duel gives YES participants a 22.5-point structural entry advantage relative to the Kalshi consensus.

• No KYC required: Sign in via Gmail, Telegram, or crypto wallet. No SSN, no government ID, no bank verification. Accessible globally without identity verification.

• 400-millisecond settlement: USDC payouts settle on Solana in 400 milliseconds - the fastest settlement of any prediction market. Compared to Kalshi's 1-3 business day ACH withdrawal and FanDuel's pending-to-withdrawal process, DuelDuck is instant.

• $0.00025 per transaction: Solana transaction costs are effectively free at current network fee levels. No minimum deposit requirement and no withdrawal fee beyond the Solana network cost.

• SOL/SPL token flexibility: Duels can be denominated in SOL, USDC, any SPL token (BONK, WIF, JUP, etc.), or Duel Duck Points. This allows community-specific currencies - a BONK community duel priced in BONK reaches participants who already hold and value that token.

• Tournament system: DuelDuck runs competitive tournaments (April Season 5,000 USDC; Solana Duel Sprint 6.866 SOL) that Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts do not offer. Tournament participants compete on PnL across curated duel sets.

DuelDuck's Limitations

• Smaller liquidity pools: Individual DuelDuck pools are community-sized, not platform-wide. A UCL Final duel with 424.9 USDC TVL is small relative to Kalshi's multi-million dollar sports contracts. Liquidity depends on community distribution, not platform-wide participant bases.

• Creator-resolved risk: Creator-resolved duels require trusting the creator's integrity. Incorrect or disputed resolutions result in reputation penalties (-10 to -20 points) but cannot guarantee 100% correct resolution on every duel. Platform resolution mitigates this but removes creator control.

• Crypto-native barrier: While Gmail and Telegram sign-in are available, USDC settlement requires a Solana wallet for withdrawal. Participants unfamiliar with crypto infrastructure face a learning curve that Kalshi and FanDuel's fiat-based systems do not require.

• No pre-built markets: DuelDuck does not list markets designed by the platform. Every duel is creator-designed. This means participants cannot browse a pre-existing catalog of events the way Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts offer. Participation requires finding a creator's distributed duel link.

The Fee Comparison: What You Actually Pay

Fee structure is the most commonly misunderstood dimension of prediction market comparison. The three platforms charge differently, and the right comparison depends on the contract probability and trade size.

Who Should Use Each Platform

The Case for Using All Three

The most sophisticated prediction market participants in 2026 maintain accounts on multiple platforms. The three platforms are not direct competitors for the same use case - they are complementary tools for different prediction market activities:

• Kalshi for depth and regulation: When a major political event or economic release is the topic, Kalshi's liquidity depth produces the most accurate market price and the most reliable execution. The 2026 Senate control market, Fed rate cut contracts, and major sports championships have their most accurate US prices on Kalshi.

• FanDuel Predicts for sports in restricted states: A participant in California or Texas who wants to trade on NFL game outcomes has no sportsbook access but can use FanDuel Predicts. The familiar brand and simple interface make it the logical first prediction market for existing FanDuel sportsbook participants.

• DuelDuck for creator income and community: A sports analyst who has already identified an edge can trade that edge on Kalshi or Polymarket - and simultaneously create a DuelDuck community duel on the same topic, earning creator fee income regardless of outcome. The information edge generates both trading profit (on Kalshi) and creator fee income (on DuelDuck) from the same underlying conviction.

The Verdict: No Single Right Answer

There is no universal 'best' prediction market in 2026. The right platform depends on what you want to do:

• Trade US political and macro events with maximum depth: Kalshi

• Trade sports in California, Texas, Florida, or Georgia: FanDuel Predicts

• Create community prediction markets and earn income from designing them: DuelDuck

• Trade with no KYC, instant USDC settlement, and 50/50 entry: DuelDuck

• Trade as a beginner with a familiar brand: FanDuel Predicts or Kalshi

The prediction market industry in May 2026 has 13 federally regulated US platforms, with more entering regularly. Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts compete for the regulated fiat-based participant. DuelDuck competes for the creator-economy, Solana-native, and community-based participant. These are different people with different needs - and the market is large enough for all three to grow simultaneously.

The question is not which platform is best. The question is which platform is right for what you want to do.

Start Predicting. Start Earning

Duel Duck - trade with 50/50 structural entry. Create duels. Earn up to 5% net creator fee per pool. No KYC. Instant USDC settlement on Solana.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Verify the legal status of prediction market trading in your jurisdiction before participating. Platform details may change; verify current fees, availability, and terms at each platform's website before trading.